The Rise of Great Mineral Powers

In the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, I coauthored an article that discusses the concept of "mineral power" and how a state’s mineral power influences its military power. It assesses the United States in the early 20th century and China in the early 21st century, finding mineral power helps enable military power.

The article calculates mineral power on a state’s access to minerals from four key sources: (1) domestic production, (2) government stockpiles, (3) overseas production by domestic companies, and (4) aligned imports, which are imports from states aligned geopolitically or commercially with the importing state.

The article finds that the United States was a rising great power and had great mineral power in the early 20th century and that China is a rising great power and has great mineral power in the early 21st century. These results indicate that a state’s mineral power helps enable its military power.

Today—unlike prior periods of great power rivalry—the United States is the weaker mineral power versus China, and it heavily relies on China for minerals, posing serious cutoff risks. US mineral shortages could severely undermine US military capabilities, especially in a US-China conflict.

To grow its mineral power, the US government should support domestic mineral production, increase mineral stockpiles, facilitate overseas mineral acquisitions, and foster supply agreements with aligned states. In the interim, it should also use its trade leverage to ensure continued access to Chinese minerals by warning of potential export controls on certain technologies should China impose restrictions on mineral exports.

Here is the article link: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Mar/11/2003410998/-1/-1/1/VIEW%20-%20WISCHER%20&%20BAZILIAN.PDF/VIEW%20-%20WISCHER%20&%20BAZILIAN.PDF